Regional Environmental Change

Climate change and uncertainty from ‘above’ and ‘below’: perspectives from India Abstract Climate-related uncertainty refers to the inability to predict the scale, intensity, and impact of climate change on human and natural environments. Debates of uncertainty in climate change have emerged as a ‘super wicked’ problem for scientists and policy makers alike. The article draws on ongoing research in different socio-ecological and cultural settings in India (Kutch, the Sundarbans and Mumbai) and introduces the heuristic of the ‘above’, ‘middle’ and ‘below’ to explore how climate change and uncertainty are understood and experienced by diverse actors. Responses from ‘above’ (especially by planners and policy makers) tend to be directed towards controlling uncertainty through top-down, techno-managerial solutions whereas scientists tend to rely on quantitative assessments and models based on probabilistic scenarios. These may have little to do with the experiences and lived realities of local people, especially in the global South, who are often at the frontline of climate change. Also at the local level, climate-related uncertainties seldom stand alone, rather they closely interact with other socio-economic drivers of change that create new uncertainties and vulnerabilities, especially for poor and powerless people constraining their adaptation choices. This article demonstrates deep differences in ways different actors understand and experience climate change and uncertainty. It argues that diverse knowledge and approaches need to be deployed to understand and embrace climate related uncertainties in order to facilitate socially just adaptation.

Knowledge co-production in protective spaces: case studies of two climate adaptation projects Abstract Knowledge co-production, a mode of research including contributions both from academic and non-academic actors, is a promising approach for climate adaptation research in order to produce knowledge that supports the development of local and regional adaptation policies. However, such a local and practical focus may be ill-aligned with the global ambitions of academic participants. The differences between performance criteria of academic and non-academic partners make knowledge co-production unlikely to emerge and survive without protection. This paper aims to understand how different participants in knowledge co-production for climate adaptation can be protected from the norms, values, and performance criteria of their own respective organizations and communities. We found that combinations of shielding (moderating pressures from the selection environment), nurturing (supporting knowledge development), and empowerment (increasing influence over the contexts) activities lead to more successful knowledge co-production. Moreover, our analysis shows that there is no silver bullet for the protection of knowledge co-production. An effective protection strategy should be tailored to the research problem and the social network of a given program.

Detection of trends in hydrological extremes for Ethiopian watersheds, 1975–2010 Abstract This study investigates trends in streamflow variables for 57 gauging stations distributed across the Ethiopian highlands for the period 1975–2010. We used the Mann-Kendall’s test to detect trends and the Sen’s slope estimator to calculate trend magnitudes. The findings show that more than 70% out of 513 test cases have shown increasing signals, and 32% of the tests were globally field significant at 0.05 level. Increasing change in low-flow magnitudes and decreasing change in low-flow frequency that exceeded 80 percentile (Qmin80p) were more prevalent than the others. Global field significant increasing changes were observed for 40% out of 228 test cases for low-flow amounts, while Qmin80p has shown decreasing trend at 46 out of 57 stations, and 26 of these were statistically significant. The general tendency is towards upward change, but there were some stations that showed field significant decreasing trends for high-flow indicators. General trend signals (upward or downward) and stations with significant changes did not show any spatial pattern. There were even adjacent gauging stations within the same river basin or adjacent river basins that showed statistically significant opposite trends for some test cases. The complex spatial pattern of trend signals is partly attributable to the very complex topographic, climatic, and land cover variations in the country that are well documented in previous studies. Also, the observed trends are difficult to fully explain in terms of climate change or land cover conversion. Generally, the results of this study contradict with previous studies that reported no significant trends in streamflow variables over Ethiopia. The study has important implications for climate change adaptation planning, water-related disaster risk management, and water sector development activities in the country.

Drivers of increased soil erosion in East Africa’s agro-pastoral systems: changing interactions between the social, economic and natural domains Abstract Increased soil erosion is one of the main drivers of land degradation in East Africa’s agricultural and pastoral landscapes. This wicked problem is rooted in historic disruptions to co-adapted agro-pastoral systems. Introduction of agricultural growth policies by centralised governance resulted in temporal and spatial scale mismatches with the complex and dynamic East African environment, which subsequently contributed to soil exhaustion, declining fertility and increased soil erosion. Coercive policies of land use, privatisation, sedentarisation, exclusion and marginalisation led to a gradual erosion of the indigenous social and economic structures. Combined with the inability of the new nation-states to provide many of the services necessary for (re)developing the social and economic domains, many communities are lacking key components enabling sustainable adaptation to changing internal and external shocks and pressures. Exemplary is the absence of growth in agricultural productivity and livelihood options outside of agriculture, which prohibits the absorption of an increasing population and pushes communities towards overexploitation of natural resources. This further increases social and economic pressures on ecosystems, locking agro-pastoral systems in a downward spiral of degradation. For the development and implementation of sustainable land management plans to be sustainable, authorities need to take the complex drivers of increased soil erosion into consideration. Examples from sustainable intensification responses to the demands of population increase, demonstrate that the integrity of locally adapted systems needs to be protected, but not isolated, from external pressures. Communities have to increase productivity and diversify their economy by building upon, not abandoning, existing linkages between the social, economic and natural domains. Locally adapted management practices need to be integrated in regional, national and supra-national institutions. A nested political and economic framework, wherein local communities are able to access agricultural technologies and state services, is a key prerequisite towards regional development of sustainable agro-pastoral systems that safeguard soil health, food and livelihood security.

Impact of urbanization on basin hydrology: a case study of the Malir Basin, Karachi, Pakistan Abstract Karachi, the biggest city of Pakistan, has undergone various urban sprawls due to its continuously growing population that has severely affected its natural drainage pattern. The city had an extensive natural drainage system which has now lost its original form. This study investigated the blockages and their causes during the last two decades in one of the city’s riverbeds—Malir. Moreover, the extent of floods identifying the vulnerability of the watershed’s urban area after major rainfall events was modeled. The geospatial techniques and satellite images of Landsat 5, 7, and 8 were used to analyze the changes in land use and land cover (LULC) of the Malir Basin. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model and topographic sheets of 1975 were utilized to delineate the natural drainage network and streambeds of the basin using geographical information system (GIS) tools. Historical rainfall data from 1985 to 2014 were acquired from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) to simulate runoff using the US Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS and HEC-GeoHMS). The flood modeling was done using the River Analysis System (HEC-RAS and GeoRAS). Rainfall-runoff simulations and flood extent and depth of five major rainfall events—1992, 2003, 2007, 2009, and 2013—were modeled in this study. GIS overlay analysis combined the LULC, riverbed, and drainage line layers to identify the blocked area and to quantify the specific LULCs that were causing blockages in the riverbed. Several maps, which are prepared in this study, show the parts of the river with altered drainage patterns in 2013 from what existed back in 1975.

Correction to: Potential impacts of extreme weather events in main maize ( Zea mays L. ) producing areas of South Africa under rainfed conditions In the original article, the panels of Figure 5 were also shown in Figure 6. The figure caption was correct. The original article has been corrected.

Exploring the potential for green growth uptake in the South African forest sector Abstract This study assesses the current mode of forest use and management at rural community level in South Africa with a view to locating space for forest-based green growth initiatives development and factors that might shape the uptake of such initiatives. This was done with respect to the need to decouple rural livelihood activities from forest degradation. Vegetation type was used as a criterion to select three municipalities (Makhado, Mutale, and Thulamela) in Vhembe District. Seven rural communities in each municipality were selected giving a total of 21 rural communities. Using stratified proportionate random sampling procedure, a total of 366 households were selected and interviewed. Findings showed that the informal forest sector is best positioned for immediate delivery of green growth benefits to the local communities. Firewood and wild edible insect (mopane worms) were identified as the priority products for forest green growth initiative uptake. However, issues relating to skill and technical capacity were identified as a barrier to the uptake of green growth initiatives in the communities. The study thus recommends capacity enhancement initiatives and forest establishment programmes such as afforestation and reforestation as a means of facilitating forest green growth uptake and delivery of green growth benefits to the study communities.

Loss and Damage in the mountain cryosphere Abstract The mountain cryosphere, which includes glaciers, permafrost, and snow, is one of the Earth’s systems most strongly affected by climate change. In recent decades, changes in the cryosphere have been well documented in many high-mountain regions. While there are some benefits from snow and ice loss, the negative impacts, including from glacier lake outburst floods and variations in glacier runoff, are generally considered to far outweigh the positive impacts, particularly if cultural impacts are considered. In international climate policy, there has been growing momentum to address the negative impacts of climate change, or ‘Loss and Damage’ (L&D) from climate change. It is not clear exactly what can and should be done to tackle L&D, but researchers and practitioners are beginning to engage with policy discussions and develop potential frameworks and supporting information. Despite the strong impact of climate change on the mountain cryosphere, there has been limited interaction between cryosphere researchers and L&D. Therefore, little work has been done to consider how L&D in the mountain cryosphere might be conceptualized, categorized, and assessed. Here, we make a first attempt to analyze L&D in the mountain cryosphere by conducting a systematic literature review to extract L&D impacts and examples from existing literature. We find that L&D is a global phenomenon in the mountain cryosphere and has been more frequently documented in the developing world, both in relation with slow and sudden onset processes. We develop a categorization of L&D, making distinctions between physical and societal impacts, primary and secondary impacts, and identifying seven types of L&D (including L&D to culture, livelihoods, revenue, natural resources, life, and security). We hope this conceptual approach will support future work to understand and address L&D in the mountain cryosphere.

Spatiotemporal variability in Terminos Lagoon (Mexico) waters during the 2009–2010 drought reveals upcoming trophic status shift in response to climate change Abstract The 2009–2010 El Niño was accompanied by a severe drought strongly impacting Mexico as well as Central America, the Caribbean, and the southern USA. The present work aims at assessing how such a major climatic event impacted the hydrological typology of transitional waters in Terminos Lagoon, one of the largest shallow tropical lagoons fringing the Gulf of Mexico. Spatiotemporal inter-comparison of hydrological conditions was conducted by pairing a reference multiparametric dataset (14 hydrological parameters versus 34 sampling stations) averaged over the October 2008 to July 2010 period with each sampling occurrence dataset and running Principal Component Analyses (PCA), setting the reference-survey dataset as active variables and each sampling occurrence dataset as non-active (supplementary) variables. It revealed that the exceptional deficit in freshwater supply to the lagoon during the 2009–2010 El Niño drastically reduced hydrological diversity and lowered the trophic status of the lagoon. Short-term shifts in environmental status are common in transitional waters and responsible for temporary shifts in community structure but climate change projections show a significant long-term decrease in the freshwater discharge at the regional scale that will impact Terminos Lagoon as well as other coastal lagoons of Mexico and Central America. When combined with sea level rise, such a decrease will result in a long-term shift in hydrological conditions with a subsequent increase in salinity and a decrease in the diversity of environmental conditions affecting trophic status, will have a long-term impact on the biota.

Climate change in the mountain cryosphere: impacts and responses