Evaluating the effectiveness of vaccines using a regression discontinuity design
Abstract
The regression discontinuity design (RDD), first proposed in the educational psychology literature and popularized in econometrics in the 1960s, has only recently been applied to epidemiologic research. A critical aim of infectious disease epidemiologists and global health researchers is to evaluate disease prevention and control strategies, including the impact of vaccines and vaccination programs. RDDs have very rarely been used in this context. This quasi-experimental approach using observational data is designed to quantify the effect of an intervention when eligibility for the intervention is based on a defined cutoff such as age or grade in school, making it ideally suited to estimating vaccine effects given that many vaccination programs and mass-vaccination campaigns define eligibility in this way. Here, we describe key features of RDDs in general, then specific scenarios, with examples, to illustrate that RDDs are an important tool for advancing our understanding of vaccine effects. We argue that epidemiologic researchers should consider RDDs when evaluating interventions designed to prevent and control diseases. This approach can address a wide range of research questions, especially those for which randomized clinical trials would present major challenges or be infeasible. Finally, we propose specific ways in which RDDs could advance future vaccine research.
Jointly Representing Geographic Exposure and Outcome Data Using Cartograms
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Family History-Wide Association Study (“FamWAS”) for Identifying Clinical and Environmental Risk Factors for Common Chronic Diseases
Abstract
Family history is a strong risk factor for many common chronic diseases and summarizes shared environmental and genetic risk, but how this increased risk is mediated is unknown. We developed a “Family History-Wide Association Study” (FamWAS) to systematically and comprehensively test Clinical and Environmental Quantitative Traits (CEQTs) for their association with family history of disease. We implemented our method on 457 CEQTs for association with family history of diabetes, asthma, and coronary heart disease (CHD) in 42,940 adults spanning 8 waves of the 1999-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We conducted pooled analyses of the 8 survey waves and analyzed trait associations using survey-weighted logistic regression. We identified 172 (37.6% of total), 32 (7.0%), and 78 (17.1%) CEQTs associated with family history of diabetes, asthma, and CHD, respectively, in sub-cohorts of individuals without the respective disease. 20 associated CEQTs were shared across family history of diabetes, asthma, and CHD, far more than expected by chance. FamWAS can examine traits not previously studied in association with family history and uncover trait overlap, highlighting a putative shared mechanism by which family history influences disease risk.
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Two-phase, generalized case-control designs for quantitative longitudinal outcomes
Abstract
We propose a general class of two-phase, epidemiological study designs for quantitative, longitudinal data that are useful when phase one longitudinal outcome and covariate data are available, but the exposure (e.g., biomarker) can only be collected on a subset of subjects during phase two. To conduct a design in the class, one first summarizes the longitudinal outcomes by fitting a simple linear regression of the response on a time-varying covariate for each subject. Sampling strata are defined by splitting the estimated regression intercept or slope distributions into distinct (low, medium, and high) regions. Stratified sampling is then conducted from strata defined by the intercepts, slopes, or from a mixture. In general, samples selected with extreme intercept values will yield low variances for time-fixed exposure associations with the outcome and samples enriched with extreme slope values will yield low variances for time-varying exposure associations with the outcome (including interactions with time-varying exposures). We describe ascertainment corrected maximum likelihood and multiple imputation estimation procedures that permit valid and efficient inferences. We embed all methodological developments within the framework of conducting a sub-study that seeks to examine genetic associations with lung function in continuously smoking participants in the Lung Health Study.
Structure and Control of Healthy Worker Effects in Studies of Pregnancy Outcomes
Abstract
Much of the literature on the healthy worker effect focuses on studies of chronic disease and mortality; however, when studying pregnancy outcomes, these effects might differ because of the short, defined risk periods of most pregnancy outcomes. Three pregnancy-specific healthy worker effects have also been described, but the structure of these effects has not yet been investigated when occupational exposure, and not employment status, is the exposure of interest. We used directed acyclic graphs to examine healthy worker effects in studies of occupational exposures and pregnancy outcomes: the healthy hire effect, the healthy worker survivor effect, the desperation/privilege effect (differential workforce reentry after pregnancy), the reproductively unhealthy worker effect (women with live births leave the workforce, while women with nonlive births do not), and the insecure pregnancy effect (women with adverse pregnancy outcomes reduce their exposures in subsequent pregnancies). Given our assumptions, we conclude that the healthy hire effect, the desperation/privilege effect, the reproductively unhealthy worker effect, and the insecure pregnancy effect result from confounding that can be addressed if data on measured confounders, such as employment status, are available. The presence of the healthy worker survivor effect, however, varies by study design. Different types of healthy worker effects can be present in studies of occupational exposure and pregnancy outcomes, and many of them are easily addressed analytically.
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Stress Disorders and Dementia in the Danish Population
Abstract
There is an association between stress and dementia. However, less is known about dementia among persons with varied stress responses and sex differences in these associations. We used this population-based cohort study to examine dementia among persons with a range of clinician-diagnosed stress disorders, as well as the interaction between stress disorders and sex in predicting dementia, in Denmark from 1995 to 2011. This study included Danes aged 40 years or older with a stress disorder diagnosis (n = 47,047) and a matched comparison cohort (n = 232,141) without a stress disorder diagnosis with data from 1995 through 2011. Diagnoses were culled from national registries. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate associations between stress disorders and dementia. Risk of dementia was higher for persons with stress disorders than for persons without such diagnosis; adjusted hazard ratios ranged from 1.6 to 2.8. There was evidence of an interaction between sex and stress disorders in predicting dementia, with a higher rate of dementia among men with stress disorders except posttraumatic stress disorder, for which women had a higher rate. Results support existing evidence of an association between stress and dementia. This study contributes novel information regarding dementia risk across a range of stress responses, and interactions between stress disorders and sex.
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Causal Mediation Analysis With Observational Data: Considerations and Illustration Examining Mechanisms Linking Neighborhood Poverty to Adolescent Substance Use
Abstract
Understanding the mediation mechanisms by which an exposure or intervention affects an outcome can provide a look into what has been called a “black box” of many epidemiologic associations, thereby providing further evidence of a relationship and possible points of intervention. Rapid methodologic developments in mediation analyses mean that there are a growing number of approaches for researchers to consider, each with its own set of assumptions, advantages, and disadvantages. This has understandably resulted in some confusion among applied researchers. Here, we provide a brief overview of the mediation methods available and discuss points for consideration when choosing a method. We provide an in-depth explication of 2 of the many potential estimators for illustrative purposes: the Baron and Kenny mediation approach, because it is the most commonly used, and a recently developed approach for estimating stochastic direct and indirect effects, because it relies on far fewer assumptions. We illustrate the decision process and analytical procedure by estimating potential school- and peer-based mechanisms linking neighborhood poverty to adolescent substance use in the National Comorbidity Survey Adolescent Supplement.
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Evaluation of the Performance of Algorithms That Use Serial Hepatitis C RNA Tests to Predict Treatment Initiation and Sustained Virological Response Among Patients Infected With Hepatitis C Virus
Abstract
The structure of electronic medical record data prevents easy population-level monitoring of hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment uptake and cure. Using an HCV registry from a public hospital system in Atlanta, Georgia, we developed multiple algorithms that use serial HCV RNA test results as proxy measures for initiation of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment and sustained virological response (SVR). We calculated sensitivity and positive predictive values (PPVs) by comparing the algorithms with the DAA initiation and SVR results from the registry. From December 2013 to August 2016, 1,807 persons actively infected with HCV were identified in the registry. Of those, 698 initiated DAA treatment on the basis of medical record abstraction; of 442 patients with treatment start and/or end dates, 314 had documented SVR. Treatment algorithm 2 (a detectable HCV RNA result followed by 2 sequential HCV RNA test results) and treatment algorithm 5 (a detectable HCV RNA result followed by 2 sequential HCV RNA test results >6 weeks apart) had the highest sensitivity (87% and 85%, respectively) and PPV (80% and 82%, respectively) combinations. Four SVR algorithms relied on fulfilling treatment algorithm definitions and having an undetectable HCV RNA test result ≥12 weeks after the last HCV RNA result; sensitivity for all 4 algorithms was 79%, and PPV was 92%–93%. Algorithms using serial quantitative HCV RNA results can serve as proxy measures for evaluating population-level DAA treatment and SVR outcomes.
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Mortality and Cancer Incidence in Carriers of Balanced Robertsonian Translocations: A National Cohort Study
Abstract
A balanced robertsonian translocation (rob) results from fusion of 2 acrocentric chromosomes. Carriers are phenotypically normal and are often diagnosed because of recurrent miscarriages, infertility, or aneuploid offspring. Mortality and site-specific cancer risks in carriers have not been prospectively investigated. We followed 1,987 carriers diagnosed in Great Britain for deaths and cancer risk, over an average of 24.1 years. Standardized mortality and incidence ratios were calculated comparing the number of observed events against population rates. Overall mortality was higher for carriers diagnosed before age 15 years (standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 2.00, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 3.35), similar for those diagnosed aged 15–44 years (SMR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.86–1.28), and lower for those diagnosed aged 45–84 years (SMR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.95). Cancer incidence was higher for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.01, 3.24) and childhood leukemia (SIR = 14.5, 95% CI: 1.75, 52.2), the latter particularly in rob(15;21) carriers (SIR = 447.8, 95% CI: 11.3, 2,495). Rob(13;14) carriers had a higher breast cancer risk (SIR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.15). Mortality risks relative to the population in diagnosed carriers depend on age at cytogenetic diagnosis, possibly reflecting age-specific cytogenetic referral reasons. Carriers might be at greater risk of childhood leukemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma and those diagnosed with rob(13;14) of breast cancer.
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Gestational Age at Arrest of Development: An Alternative Approach for Assigning Time at Risk in Studies of Time-Varying Exposures and Miscarriage
Abstract
The time between arrest of pregnancy development and miscarriage represents a window in which the pregnancy is nonviable and not developing. In effect, the pregnancy loss has already occurred, and additional exposure cannot influence its outcome. However, epidemiologic studies of miscarriage traditionally use gestational age at miscarriage (GAM) to assign time in survival analyses, which overestimates duration of exposure and time at risk. In Right From the Start, a pregnancy cohort study (2000–2012), we characterized the gap between estimated gestational age at arrest of development (GAAD) and miscarriage using transvaginal ultrasound in 500 women recruited from 3 states (North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas). We compared effect estimates from models using GAAD with GAM to assign time at risk through a simulation study of several exposure patterns with varying effect sizes. The median gap between GAAD and miscarriage was 23 days (interquartile range, 15–32). Use of GAAD decreased the bias and variance of the estimated association for time-varying exposures, whereas half the time using GAM led to estimates that differed from the true effect by more than 20%. Using GAAD to assign time at risk should result in more accurate and consistent characterization of miscarriage risk associated with time-varying exposures.
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Multinomial Extension of Propensity Score Trimming Methods: A Simulation Study
Abstract
Crump et al. (Biometrika. 2009;96(1):187–199), Stürmer et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2010;172(7):843–854), and Walker et al. (Comp Eff Res. 2013;2013(3):11–20) proposed propensity score (PS) trimming methods as a means to improve efficiency (Crump) or reduce confounding (Stürmer and Walker). We generalized the trimming definitions by considering multinomial PSs, one for each treatment, and proved that these proposed definitions reduce to the original binary definitions when we have only 2 treatment groups. We then examined the performance of the proposed multinomial trimming methods in the setting of 3 treatment groups, in which subjects with extreme PSs more likely had unmeasured confounders. Inverse probability of treatment weights, matching weights, and overlap weights were used to control for measured confounders. All 3 methods reduced bias regardless of the weighting methods in most scenarios. Multinomial Stürmer and Walker trimming were more successful in bias reduction when the 3 treatment groups had very different sizes (10:10:80). Variance reduction, seen in all methods with inverse probability of treatment weights but not with matching weights or overlap weights, was more successful with multinomial Crump and Stürmer trimming. In conclusion, our proposed definitions of multinomial PS trimming methods were beneficial within our simulation settings that focused on the influence of unmeasured confounders.
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Guideline-Based Physical Activity and Survival Among US Men With Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer
Abstract
The survival impact of adhering to current physical activity guidelines after prostate cancer diagnosis is unknown. We therefore emulated a target trial of guideline-based physical activity interventions and 10-year survival among US men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer. We used observational data on 2,299 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study who were diagnosed with nonmetastatic prostate cancer from 1998 to 2010 and were free of conditions that might have precluded participation at baseline (first postdiagnostic questionnaire). We estimated their survival under several guideline-based physical activity interventions starting at baseline and ending at the development of conditions limiting physical ability. We adjusted for baseline and time-varying risk factors for death using the parametric g-formula. Compared with the observed 15.4% mortality risk, the estimated 10-year risks of mortality were 13.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 10.9, 15.4) and 11.1% (95% CI: 8.7, 14.1) for ≥1.25 hours/week and ≥2.5 hours/week of vigorous activity, respectively, and 13.9% (95% CI: 12.0, 16.0) and 12.6% (95% CI: 10.6, 14.7) for ≥2.5 hours/week and ≥5 hours/week of moderate activity, respectively. We estimated that these men would have experienced clinically meaningful reductions in mortality had they followed current physical activity recommendations until the development of conditions limiting physical ability. These findings may help guide clinical recommendations for prostate cancer patients and the design of future randomized trials.
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Shift Work and Respiratory Infections in Health-Care Workers
Abstract
Recently, there has been interest in whether shift work may enhance susceptibility to infection. Our aim was to determine whether shift workers in the health-care field have a higher incidence, duration, and/or severity of influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infection (ARI) than non–shift workers. From September 2016 to June 2017, 501 rotating and/or night-shift workers and 88 non–shift workers from the Klokwerk+ Study (the Netherlands, 2016–2017) registered the occurrence of ILI/ARI symptoms daily using a smartphone application. The incidence rate of ILI/ARI (defined as ≥2 symptoms on the same day/≥1 symptom on 2 consecutive days), the mean duration of each episode, and the incidence rate of severe episodes were compared between shift workers and non–shift workers using negative binomial regression and linear mixed-model analysis. In total, participants completed 110,347 diaries. Shift workers’ incidence rate of ILI/ARI was 1.20 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.43) times higher than that of non–shift workers, and for severe ILI/ARI episodes, shift workers’ incidence rate was 1.22 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.49) times higher. The mean duration of an ILI/ARI episode did not differ (ratio between means = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.19). In conclusion, shift workers in health care had more ILI/ARI episodes and more severe ILI/ARI episodes than non–shift workers, but with a similar duration. Insight into underlying mechanisms connecting shift work and infection susceptibility will contribute to the design of preventive initiatives.
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| SOME DESIRABLE PROPERTIES OF THE BONFERRONI CORRECTION: IS THE BONFERRONI CORRECTION REALLY SO BAD? |
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